Polish presidential election too close to call, exit poll suggests

Warsaw's liberal Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski has claimed victory in Poland's presidential election but his winning margin in an exit poll is well within the margin of error.

An exit poll, with a margin of error of 3% broadcast immediately after voting ended, indicates Trzaskowski winning on 50.3%, marginally ahead of his rival, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki on 49.7%.

The official result is due to be published on Monday morning, the head of the state electoral commission said.

Trzaskowski claimed victory in front of cheering supporters in Warsaw. "We won," he said.

"We won, although the phrase 'razor's edge' will forever enter the Polish language and politics," he added.

His wife, Malgorzata, jokingly told the crowd, "I'm close to having a heart attack".

Trzaskowski promised to reach out to voters who supported his opponent. I will be a president for all Polish women and men," he said.

Nawrocki told his supporters that the result is too close to call.

"Let's not lose hope for this night. We will win during the night, the difference is minimal. I believe that we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki," he said.

Poland's president is a largely ceremonial role with limited influence on foreign policy and defence, but they can veto legislation and Donald Tusk's pro-EU coalition government lacks a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn it.

The current conservative incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, has used his powers to prevent Prime Minister Tusk delivering key campaign promises including removing political influence from the judiciary and liberalising the country's strict abortion law.

If Trzaskowski's victory is confirmed that obstacle would be removed and would allow Tusk to cement Poland's place in the European mainstream.

However, Tusk also faces opposition from within his own coalition from the conservative Peoples' Party on issues including abortion and legalising civil partnerships.

A victory for national conservative Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, would mean continued conflict between the government and president.

It would also re-energise PiS, which lost power 18 months ago, giving the party the belief that it can go on to win parliamentary elections in 2027.

Both candidates support continued assistance for neighbouring Ukraine, although Nawrocki has said he opposes its entry into Nato and the EU for now while Russia continues its war of aggression.

Both men differ over their approach to the EU. Trzaskowski, a former Europe minister, supports Tusk's vision of a Poland at the heart of the European mainstream, influencing decisions through strong relations with Germany and France.

A deputy leader of Tusk's Civic Platform, he has served as Warsaw mayor since 2018.

He's the son of a famous Polish jazz pianist, speaks several languages and is viewed by some voters as a member of the country's liberal elite who is out of touch with ordinary Poles.

According to the CBOS polling company, Trzaskowski's typical voter is aged 30-40 years old, is relatively well off with left-liberal views and is open to LGBTQ+ and migrants' rights. They tend to live in large cities and have positive views of the EU.

Some voters said he tried to "artificially" present himself as a candidate who values patriotism. During the campaign, he has taken a much tougher line against illegal migration, something Tusk started to do before winning power in 2023 and he has volunteered to do basic military training.

Nawrocki, 42, supports a strong sovereign Poland and does not want the country to cede any more powers to Brussels. He opposes the EU's climate and migration policies. He's a conservative Catholic that prioritises traditional family values.

He was relatively unknown nationally before he was selected by opposition party PiS to be their "unofficial" candidate.

A keen amateur boxer and footballer, he often posted images of himself working out, allowing PiS to present him as a strong candidate who would stand up for ordinary Poles and the country's national interests.

A fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington during the campaign for an extremely brief meeting to get a thumbs-up photo of himself with the American president in the Oval Office.

During the campaign he was attacked by the government and media for being morally unfit to be the country's president, but the allegations did not diminish his support during the last week of campaigning.

During a presidential debate, Nawrocki said that he, like most Poles, owned one apartment. That turned out to be a lie.

Nawrocki was accused of taking advantage of a vulnerable senior citizen to acquire his council flat at a huge discount in exchange for promises of care that were unfulfilled. Following the scandal, Nawrocki said he would donate the flat to charity but always denied the accusation.

Polish news website Onet.pl accused Nawrocki of helping to arrange sex workers for guests at the luxury Grand Hotel in the Baltic seaside resort of Sopot when he worked there as a security guard.

The story was based on anonymous sources, but Onet.pl said the witnesses had sworn they would repeat the allegations under oath in court. Nawrocki called the story a pack of lies and said he would sue the website.

His opponents portrayed him as a football hooligan who admired gangsters and neo-Nazi ultras. Nawrocki did not deny taking part in hooligan brawls as a younger man, calling them "noble fights". He has also said these allegations were an attempt to smear his reputation.

Some Nawrocki voters told me they did not believe certain stories about him, saying they were inventions of the mainstream Trzaskowski-supporting media.