Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads GOP's Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia governor race: Poll

Democrat Abigail Spanberger has a double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s governor’s race, according to a recent poll showing most Old Dominion voters are unhappy with President Trump.

A Roanoke College survey found that five months out from the election, Ms. Spanberger, a former member of Congress, is leading Ms. Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, 43%-26%. Roughly 3 in 10 voters remain undecided.

Ms. Spanberger also has a stronger favorable rating (41%) than Ms. Earle-Sears (32%).

“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.

Mr. Wilson said Ms. Spanberger leads among independent voters, and a chunk of Republicans, who likely will swing toward Ms. Earle-Sears, remain on the fence.

Ms. Earle-Sears is also facing anti-Trump headwinds, with 65% of voters saying they disapprove of the president’s job performance and a nearly identical percentage saying they view him unfavorably.

“For the first time in eight years of polling, a majority (51%) thinks things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track, while two-thirds (66%) say the same about the country,” the poll analysis reads.

Democrats are also seen in a more positive light than Republicans.

The off-year governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey have traditionally been viewed as a barometer for the national political environment.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, cannot seek reelection. Virginia is the only state that bars governors from serving consecutive terms.

The Trump administration’s push to downsize the federal workforce and scale back the government has fed speculation that it could hurt the Virginia GOP with voters in Northern Virginia.

The Roanoke College poll included interviews with 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of plus or minus 5.25 percentage points.